The New Norm: Contours of a Possible Future. A Series of Lectures

We live in an era of changes that has dragged on and shows no sign of ending, and growing fascination with various ways of thinking about the future—from parascientific futurology to quasi-scientific forecasts, foresight exercises, «possible scenarios,» and so on—is only one vivid symptom of a loss of direction and concern not so much about an already arriving future as about a present that is slipping away. We understand poorly what is happening, because the speed at which the differences between «today» and «yesterday» multiply no longer allows us to reason by analogy and to rely on tradition: all reference points are unstable, traditions are optional, values are relative, and starting points are local. The gaps between generations are becoming deeper because it is changing not only the biological and social age of those who find themselves on different sides of the gap—within them entire worlds change: the means of communication they use, domestic technological infrastructure, and the institutions of primary and secondary socialization.

In our cycle, we will focus on the most clearly observed changes and discuss possible consequences, without claiming to provide a reliable forecast, but paying attention to the most likely ways a given socio-historical plot might unfold.